How did the U.K. election forecasts do?

… U.K. elections have been tough to forecast in recent years. The 2016 Brexit vote was a shock to many, although the polls suggested it would be close. The last parliamentary election, in May 2015, was also a surprise: Public opinion polls and academic forecasts predicted a hung parliament, but the Conservatives won an outright majority.

For this assessment, we have compiled Conservative and Labour Party seat forecasts from Murr, Stegmaier, and Lewis-Beck, Lebo and Norpoth, Fisher and Goldenberg, Janta-Lipinski, Forecast UK, PME Politics, Kantar, Principalfish, Election Polling, and others first compiled by Simon Hix. CONT.

Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier & Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Monkey Cage