The May 25th, 2017 special election for Montana’s sole U.S. House of Representatives seat took an unexpected turn on the eve of the election when Republican candidate Greg Gianforte was charged with assault for body slamming a reporter. The race between Gianforte and Democrat Rob Quist had been tightening in recent weeks, and Democrats surmised the turn of events might tip the scales in their favor on Election Day. …
Once the final results were tallied, political observers were quick to suggest early voting helped ensure a win for Gianforte despite the shocking nature of the assault. Too many Montanans, they argued—unable to change their vote choice—had cast ballots by the time of the assault for the event to change the outcome. …
However, there are important trends to consider that complicate our understanding of the impact of early voting on the outcome of the Montana special election. CONT.
Mara Suttmann-Lea (Skidmore), LSE USAPP