The debate over what factors caused pollsters to err in 2016 is likely to continue for some time, as is the argument as to what extent the miss represents either a critical failure for the industry or simply a demonstration of overcertainty by pundits and forecasters. But regardless of the magnitude of the error, polling systematically overstated the likelihood of a Clinton win.
That’s something pollsters will have to grapple with in the next election. It’s also something that, as the country settles down to the business of governing, raises a more immediate question: how much can polls be trusted to measure the public’s support for policies? CONT.
Ariel Edwards-Levy, Natalie Jackson & Janie Velencia, Sabato’s Crystal Ball