During elections, most public opinion surveys try to identify likely voters and use them to predict the winner. Working with our students at Cornell University, we took a different approach by focusing on respondents who said they did not intend to vote for Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Trump. In our survey, this was a sizable group — more than 20 percent of the public — and our analysis indicated that they leaned toward Mr. Trump. Whether undecided or unwilling to openly express their support, this group was hidden to pollsters focusing on likely voters. …
Who then were these hidden Trump supporters? To find out, we returned to our data (a nationally representative sample of 1,461 adults surveyed in October) to examine the opinions and policy preferences of four distinct groups: those who indicated a Trump vote, those who indicated a Clinton vote, hidden Trump supporters and hidden Clinton supporters. CONT.
Peter K. Enns & Jonathon P. Schuldt (Cornell), New York Times