“All models are wrong,” the statistician George Box once said. This year was no exception.
On Oct. 18, a model built by Donald J. Trump’s campaign gave him an 8 percent chance of winning, Bloomberg has reported. At that point in the race, The Upshot’s model gave him the same chances. By Election Day, his odds were higher, but Mr. Trump was still not favored to win. Near the end of the race, a model built by the Republican National Committee showed him losing over all and in states like Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to Politico. (He won each of those states.)
So did Mr. Trump simply beat the odds? Or were the odds wrong all along? CONT.
Amanda Cox & Josh Katz, New York Times