Going into Election Day, political forecasters predicted the most likely outcome was a victorious Hillary Clinton, a Democratic Senate, and the House still firmly in Republican hands. Instead, Donald J. Trump emerged as the 45th president of the United States, while the GOP managed to hold on to both houses of Congress.
Why were these top-line forecasts ultimately so wrong? A deeper dive into the state-by-state and down-ballot predictions we’ve been tracking since the primaries shows that the failure to predict the Republican clean sweep comes down to just a few limited (though consequential) mistakes. CONT.
Andre Tartar, Bloomberg