Hillary Clinton currently has a 71 percent chance of winning the presidency, according to The Upshot’s forecasting model. This is down from 90 percent last month, but higher than some other models we’re tracking, which put the odds between 58 percent and 85 percent.
Part of the discrepancy comes from the use of different information. The PredictWise number — 74 percent — incorporates a sharp jump in betting markets that occurred during the first presidential debate. This jump, if it’s real, is not yet reflected in polls, which take days to conduct.
But most of the difference has to do with different model assumptions. CONT.
Josh Katz, New York Times