Some election watchers treat independent voters like the golden key to open up Star World in “Super Mario World.” If you know who is winning independents, the thinking goes, then you know who is going to win the election. There’s an appealing simplicity to the logic of this: If Democrats vote for the Democrat and Republicans vote for the Republican, then whoever wins independents wins. The problem: It just isn’t true historically, and it may be wrong this election, as well. CONT.
Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight