At the American Political Science Association (APSA) meetings last week in Philadelphia, Charles Tien and I released our presidential election forecast, as did other political science forecasters. We called a narrow win for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, with 51 percent of the popular vote share (the Democratic and Republican total).
This popular vote win translates, by our calculations, into a narrow Electoral College win of 274 votes. In sum, we foresee a Clinton victory by the thinnest of margins. CONT.
Michael S. Lewis-Beck (U. of Iowa), The Hill