The 2016 presidential race features two unpopular candidates: both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have unprecedentedly low favorability ratings for major-party candidates. The possibility that a large percentage of voters will not vote for either candidate may lead to a serious third-party challenger, something not seen since Ross Perot’s 1992 and 1996 runs. This scenario makes the election harder to predict. …
Respondents often hide their support for the unpopular candidate of their party by either saying they are undecided, or that they prefer a third candidate. And this is the biggest concern that pollsters have with adding the names of third-party candidates to poll “horse race” questions—that polls overestimate support for third-party candidate, making final predictions less accurate. CONT.
Andrew Smith (UNH), Time