There has been a lot of noise in polling on the upcoming EU referendum. Unlike the polls before the 2015 General Election, which were in almost perfect agreement (though, of course, not particularly close to the actual outcome), this time the polls are in serious disagreement. …
In this article, we describe a strategy we are using to synthesise the evidence from the many polls that YouGov runs, the resulting estimates of the overall referendum results and how it breaks down by geography and some other variables – as well as what might still go wrong with our approach. CONT.
Benjamin Lauderdale & Douglas Rivers, YouGov