… For Clinton to win, she needs Democrats to remain at a solid advantage over Republicans as a share of the electorate (this is what most current polls are showing); retain the loyalty of Democratic voters; and not lose independents by too large of a margin. For Trump to win, he must have the loyalty of Republicans while winning a larger share of independents than Mitt Romney did in 2012 (Romney won independents by 5 percentage points). Theoretically, his candidacy could also shape the electorate to be more Republican, but it is more likely that the partisan composition of the electorate in 2016 will be what the polls are showing now and be roughly what it was in 2012.
That’s the stark math for both candidates. CONT.
Ken Goldstein (U. of of San Francisco), Bloomberg Politics