… We have been fielding just one question since the start of the year: Who are you most likely to vote for in the upcoming presidential election? With the answers of: Definitely Republican candidate, Likely Republican candidate, Likely Democratic candidate, Definitely Democratic candidate, and not voting. This question focuses on the party, rather than the individual candidate because we believe the question will more accurately reflect voting in November, than polling in the spring. …
Our data is clear: the trend is in favor of the Democratic nominee. Rather than the big swing we see with the aggregation of the traditional polling, we have seen a steady increase in the poll share for the Democratic nominee. When it comes to national popular vote, a strong predictor of state-level voting, Donald Trump is going to start this presidential campaign with a serious deficit to the eventual Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton. CONT.
Tobias Konitzer (Stanford) & David Rothschild (Microsoft Research), PredictWise