Almost certainly, after the July nominating conventions, the Democratic presidential nominee will be heavily favored to win the general election. (The “almost” leaves room for a dark horse candidate to win a contested convention.)
That’s despite the fact that if you relied on ordinary forecasting — “fundamental models,” built on data from past presidential elections, such as whether an incumbent was running, how high the president’s approval ratings were, and the state of the economy — you’d predict a very tight race. CONT.
Tobias Konitzer & David Rothschild, The Monkey Cage