How Google Trends Predicted Donald Trump’s Rise, and What It Means For Polling

What are the most important issues in a political campaign? As Donald Trump has risen to the top of the Republican primary field, pundits have speculated especially on what motivates his supporters, and what it may mean for the future of American politics.

Pollsters are certainly interested in this as well, and the ‘most important issue’ question is a staple of political polling. …

But for public opinion researchers and campaign strategists, the problem with the ‘most important issue’ question is that it doesn’t seem to change much in response to events. “Jobs and the economy” has led the polls continuously since at least 2008. …

So if the ‘most important issue’ question misses some part of the picture, how can we know what issues are getting the most attention? Analysts and academics are turning to Google search data. Since this data reflects actual voter behavior — the act of searching itself — it offers another snapshot of public opinion. CONT.

Matt Dabrowski, Huffington Post

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.