Until Wisconsin, Donald Trump was considered likely to win a majority of pledged delegates. In truth, his plan to reach 1,237 was already very vulnerable; Ted Cruz had built enough support by March 15 that even adding a modest share of Marco Rubio’s voters was likely to start him on the road to deny Mr. Trump a majority.
But after Mr. Trump’s loss Tuesday, the conventional wisdom has gone too far in the other direction. His path to 1,237 is still clear. It is certainly narrow, but it may require him to do only two challenging things: win two tossup states, Indiana and California. There’s an argument he’s currently favored in both. CONT.
Nate Cohn, New York Times