Why Donald Trump Is Winning and Why His Nomination Could Shatter the Republican Party

There has never been a frontrunner for a major party nomination like Donald Trump. Since announcing his candidacy, Trump has seemingly broken every rule of political campaigning — at times disparaging women, racial minorities, people with disabilities, and leaders of his own party — yet he has led the national polls for nine straight months, won 15 of the first 24 caucuses and primaries holding a presidential preference vote, and accumulated far more delegates than any other candidate. …

Trump is not only the most unusual frontrunner in recent history, he may also be the most divisive. In order to analyze the sources of support for Trump and his potential impact on the Republican Party, we conducted a national survey of 1,000 registered Republican and independent voters. CONT.

Alan I. Abramowitz, Ronald Rapoport & Walter Stone, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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