Prediction markets move the fundamental model upward about 15 percentage points for each contested Electoral College election. I have run my presidential fundamental model (the underlying academic paper is joint work with Patrick Hummel) and posted the results on the PredictWise Presidential General Election forecast page. The key takeaway is that the fundamental model predicts a narrow victory for the generic Republican candidate over the generic Democratic candidate. …
You will notice on the same page I hold by my prediction that the Democratic candidate is about 63% likely to win the general election based on a mix of: prediction markets and fundamental model. CONT.
David Rothschild, PredictWise