… Despite their small populations, tiny numbers of national convention delegates and racially homogeneous electorates, the national parties continue to allow Iowa and New Hampshire to exert an outsized influence on the selection of the presidential nominees by kicking off the primary and caucus season. Because they go first and second, the national media provide massive coverage of the contests in these two states. This means that what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire can influence the opinions of voters in the rest of the country and, therefore, the results of later contests and the eventual outcomes of the nomination races. …
The influence of Iowa and New Hampshire on the presidential nomination process can be seen by examining how their results affect the standing of the candidates in the national polls. Even though there is no national primary, the national polls do eventually provide an accurate prediction of the final nomination results. CONT.
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball