The predictive value of GOP presidential polls

… Two Nates (Silver and Cohn) have come out with essays arguing that we still can’t extract much predictive value from opinion polls. For the detailed kind of analysis they like, this may be true. However, a slightly different approach has suggestive implications about who is likely to be the eventual Republican nominee. (Spoiler: rhymes with Grump.)

First, let’s examine two current attitudes about polls. One is endemic to journalists, the other to data pundits. CONT.

Sam Wang, Princeton Election Consortium

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