… This study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter. It then compares the relative effectiveness of each approach in describing the electorate and measuring the division of the vote between parties in the 2014 U.S. House of Representatives elections. Pollsters would like to have a crystal ball that would allow them to see who will ultimately turn out to vote. While this study has no crystal ball, it has the next best thing: a survey of people interviewed before and after the 2014 congressional elections that is enhanced with verified turnout data from a national voter file (a database of adults and their publicly available voter turnout records from all states).
In particular, this study makes it possible to assess at least some of the benefits of sampling from lists of registered voters, the method favored by many campaign pollsters. CONT.
Pew
