Why should I believe what a poll says ever again? It is one of those questions that guarantees applause on Question Time. It is normally asked, according to polls compiler Anthony Wells, by “a middle-aged man, who looks very pleased with himself afterwards and folds his arms with his hands sort of tucked in his armpits”.
The short answer is that they are better than any other way of trying to find out how people might vote. The alternatives are astrology, gut feeling or asking small groups of people who might give a clue as to how others think. …
Armpit-man is asking the wrong question, therefore. He should be asking why the pollsters got it wrong at the general election, what they have learned about their mistakes, and how confident we can be about their findings in future. CONT.
John Rentoul, The Independent