During elections, polling companies create a multitude of snapshots of how potential voters would vote if the election were held that day. But, the U.S. does not call snap elections; the first votes will not be cast for 75 days. And those people who answer polls are not necessarily the same people who show up on blustery February nights in Iowa or at later caucuses and primaries.
While the latest polling data provides a snapshot of the electorate’s current sentiment, political prediction market data helps form a meaningful picture of what will happen 75 days from now in Iowa, or 356 days from now across the country. CONT.
David Rothschild (Microsoft Research), MSNBC.com