… In times of turmoil, presidential politics has sometimes drawn unusual, non-traditional figures to occupy center stage during part or all of a campaign. … However, what is happening within the Republican Party now has no modern parallel. Two unconventional outsiders, Donald Trump and Ben Carson, are thoroughly dominating the early months of the pre-nomination season. …
For a long time, we’ve listed Jeb Bush at the top of the list as a very marginal frontrunner. No longer.
Bush is the foundering ship in a fast-developing and unexpected storm, and it’s unclear whether or not his campaign can bail water sufficiently and make a serious course correction to put Bush on a path toward the Republican nomination. CONT.
Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik & Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball