… Americans have watched for months—with 14 more months to go—as the poll numbers for Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Bush, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Bernie Sanders and other White House hopefuls have gyrated up and down, depending on the ebb and flow of the news and the debates.
These polls are all based on some version of this question: “Right now, which of these candidates do you prefer?”
But in crowded, pell-mell elections like this, statisticians and political scientists prefer a very different question: “Who do you think will actually win?” CONT.
Neil King Jr., Wall Street Journal