… What was true of Giuliani’s popularity early in the 2008 cycle was true of Howard Dean’s at the same stage in the 2004 cycle. It was true of Rick Perry’s, Newt Gingrich’s, and Herman Cain’s early in the 2012 cycle. Anyone can be the “front-runner” in an election most voters aren’t really thinking about yet. The 2016 New Hampshire primary is still 20 weeks away; the presidential election won’t take place for more than a year. Today’s political opinion polls supply fodder for media pundits and talking heads. But they have about the same predictive power as fortune cookies.
Yet will next year’s polling be any better?
Early poll results have always been rubbish, but election polling itself is growing increasingly dubious. CONT.
Jeff Jacoby, Boston Globe