In a different context, former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld called them the “known unknowns,” the critical questions that must be answered in order to better forecast the results of a campaign. His campaign was a war; ours is war by other means. With more than a year to go before Election Day, I’ve got a hunch about which party will have an advantage, but it’s based on nothing but a bit of learned intuition and the wisdom of the crowds.
And yet, polls testing Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump or Joe Biden vs. Jeb Bush get headline treatment. That’s silly. We know we don’t know enough to reliably predict the general election.
Here are five of those known unknowns. When we can answer these questions, the crystal ball will begin to clear. CONT.
Marc Ambinder, FiveThirtyEight