Another political analyst and I recently decided just for fun to write down what percentage chance we would give the top contenders for the Republican presidential nomination. …
Obviously, this is a business where surprises are more the norm than the exception, but a field of 15 to 20 candidates makes it even more difficult for anyone who is not near the top at the beginning to rise and separate from the pack. Debate rules will make it even more exclusionary. The top three or so candidates are drawing interest from relatively broad swaths of Republican voters; the rest of the hopefuls are carving out smaller niches or pockets within the GOP primary electorate, often with very narrowly tailored arguments that don’t have much elasticity. CONT.
Charlie Cook