No pollster or political soothsayer can guarantee what will happen on Thursday. All we can really promise is to raise uncertainty to a higher level of sophistication. The closeness of the Labour-Conservative race is plainly one reason. If today’s polls are slightly out, or there is a last-minute swing, the results may confound all expectations.
But there is another reason. In most elections all we normally have to do is work out what is happening in the Tory-Labour marginals, adding in a glance at the handful of seats the Liberal Democrats might gain or lose.
This time it’s much more complex. CONT.
Peter Kellner, YouGov