… The Oscars are tricky to predict for a number of reasons, the main one being that — compared to election forecasting or sports prognostications — it’s very difficult to get relevant data; the awards are determined by the views of a small, tight-knit group of voters. No one polls them. …
Still, if you want to watch the Oscars using the best data and stats available, you’ve come to the right place. CONT.
Walt Hickey, FiveThirtyEight