… Bouncing back from the past six years will be challenging for Democrats. While Republicans have some profound demographic problems that will make presidential races and Senate contests in certain states more challenging than they would like, Democrats now have virtual no-fly zones in some parts of the country; the party isn’t likely to really come back across the South in my lifetime.
Having said that, just a look at the 2016 Senate race picture reveals what is likely to be a real fight for the majority. While Republicans have 24 seats up, compared with just 10 for Democrats, and with seven of those GOP seats in states Obama won in both 2008 and 2012 (and nine in states Obama carried 2008), the map is extremely challenging for Republicans in two years—just as this year’s was for Democrats. Furthermore, the presidential-year electorate is looking much better for Democrats, and midterm electorates are looking great for Republicans these days, lending a potential boom and bust, or maybe “boomlet and bustlet” era for the parties in the foreseeable future. CONT.
Charlie Cook