The GOP’s numbers problem

… For two years, Republicans had been working to correct one of the party’s greatest embarrassments of recent years: the flawed polling that led so many in the party to believe Mitt Romney was on the cusp of victory in 2012. But after dramatically underestimating Democratic turnout in 2012, it was now obvious that the GOP had erred in the other direction in 2014. …

Republicans, it turned out, weren’t the only ones with polling problems: The Democratic internals and public polls also overestimated the Democratic turnout. But the GOP, in particular, had spent months refining its methods just to avoid this problem.

Now, as Republicans look ahead to 2016, senior party strategists are preparing for yet another overhaul of their survey-research arm, despite all the work the party did to help its pollsters capture an increasingly diverse and harder-to-reach electorate. CONT.

Steven Shepard, Politico

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