One Reason the Democrats Lost So Big in Midterms: Exceptionally Low Voter Turnout

When turnout falls, Democrats perform worse in elections. That general pattern is well known. In making their forecasts, pollsters try to estimate what that turnout will be on the basis of previous elections. This year, pre-election opinion polls were off by the largest amount seen in over 20 years. Could this massive underperformance by Democrats have been connected to a wrong guess about turnout? CONT.

Sam Wang (Princeton), American Prospect

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