What 2014 Elections Can Tell Us About the 2016 Ones: Not So Much

America has again embraced our long history of electoral overreaction. While it’s true that Republicans won a major victory at the polls, the results tell us far less about future elections than some commentary has suggested. …

Historically, midterm results, which are typically unfavorable to the president’s party, tell us relatively little about the coming presidential election, as the accompanying chart illustrates. The record shows that the president’s party can rebound from major losses to win at the polls in two years. CONT.

Brendan Nyhan (Dartmouth), New York Times

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