As election results continue to roll in, the big puzzle of the morning is not why the Republicans won so many Senate seats – as was just noted in the previous Monkey Cage post, The Monkey Cage’s Election Lab did a remarkably good job of predicting this outcome — but rather the question is … why, when polls were biased, they seem to have so consistently been biased in the Democrats’ favor (i.e., Republicans did better than polls predicted they would). After all, we are supposed to be living in a world where polls are more likely to miss Democrats’ supporters — especially young, cellphone only types — so why the big Republican surprise? CONT.
Joshua Tucker (NYU), The Monkey Cage