Every two years, people who are interested in politics sit glued to the media of their choice as the election returns roll in. Many races are called as soon as the polls close, but the ones that matter most—that spell the difference between majority and minority status for a political party—usually aren’t.
By themselves, the developing vote totals in close races aren’t all that revealing. It depends on where the votes are coming from. For House races, it’s particular precincts. For Senate and gubernatorial races, it’s counties that have developed reputations as indicators of statewide sentiment. Often these reputations are deserved; sometimes they aren’t. Commentators typically focus on large, well-known counties, overlooking smaller counties that may be more reliable bell-weathers.
To test conventional wisdom and to develop a guide for people who don’t analyze politics for a living, we looked at all the contested Senate races this year. CONT.
Bill Galston, Brookings Institution