All of the major Senate forecasting models, including ours at Election Lab, now rely heavily on averages of public polls. This raises the question of whether those averages will be correct on Election Day, and whether any misses could affect which party manages to retain control of the Senate. In particular, there is the question of whether polling misses might mean that the Democrats end up with a slim Senate majority after all. CONT.
John Sides (GWU), The Monkey Cage