… In the 2012 presidential election, there was a long stretch of the campaign when the national and state polls disagreed. State-level surveys showed President Obama in better shape than national polls. The state polls ended up being more accurate, but it’s always best to have a check on the data.
That’s especially true this year given the proliferation of pollsters in competitive Senate races that use nontraditional methodologies — pollsters that don’t call cell phones or aren’t transparent about their methods.
But we got a decent reality check on the polls on Friday. CONT.
Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight
See also: NPR Poll: Senate Battleground Tilts Republican, But Still Anybody’s Game