Those who follow the generic congressional ballot polls may have noticed a certain shift toward the Republicans in recent weeks. …
But chances are there was little to no change at all in public sentiment about the upcoming election. The shift in the poll results coincided with a shift in pollster methodology — from assessing the opinion of registered voters to assessing opinion among that portion of the registered electorate who the polling organization deemed to be a likely voter. CONT.
Robert Erikson (Columbia) & Christopher Wlezien (U. of Texas), The Monkey Cage
Recent polls: Generic congressional ballot