Many are looking at Scotland’s independence referendum as a referendum on poll accuracy as well. And the general consensus is that polls failed the test.
One analyst called it “a loss not only for the pro-independence movement … but also for the pollsters.” A Guardian column blamed “systematic error across the models the pollsters used.”
The evidence motivating all the hand-wringing: Polls showed the race close, with some even having “yes” ahead. But in the end, “no” won by 10 points.
Having done no polls of our own, I had no dog in the fight, but I think the critique is overdrawn. CONT.
Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill