With two notable exceptions, opinion polls released this month about Scotland’s independence referendum vote gave an accurate picture: “No,” a vote against leaving the United Kingdom, was the steady favorite. But pollsters underestimated the extent of “no” support, making this the latest referendum with a voting-day swing toward the status quo. …
It’s hard to say whether pollsters all erred in their calculations — perhaps with poor estimates of turnout for groups partial to one side — or whether voters changed their minds late. CONT.
Carl Bialik & Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight