With the 2014 midterms now just two months away, there’s been a recent proliferation of models attempting to forecast the battle for the Senate — models that are showing different results …
Very broadly, the most important differences relate to “how uncertain the models are about forecasts for every different race,” says Eric McGhee, co-creator of the Washington Post’s model. In other words, compared to what the raw polling data currently shows, how does each model try to adjust and correct for where things might go wrong? “These models are measuring uncertainty in different ways,” says Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. “There’s a range of legitimate disagreement, and there’s also models that are just not done well.” CONT.
Andrew Prokop, Vox