Longtime readers will know that I was a big fan of Drew Linzer’s 2012 presidential forecast model contained at his Votamatic website, and not just because he was kind enough fly out here to give a talk to Middlebury students during the middle of the presidential campaign. Linzer’s model, you will recall, correctly predicted the electoral vote outcome in each state during the 2012 presidential election, thus making his final Electoral College prediction of Obama 332, Romney 206 the most accurate of the transparent forecast models of which I’m aware (along with political scientist’s Simon Jackman’s) for that cycle. Now Linzer is back with another forecast model (two actually!) looking at both Senate and gubernatorial races during the current election cycle and, as was the case in 2012, he is once again opening up the model so we can see the moving parts. CONT.
Matthew Dickinson, Middlebury College