Some recent discussions of Senate forecasting models have looked at current differences among the models, mainly ours and The Upshot’s. One key factor that has differentiated them is polls. Our model hasn’t incorporated polling data, although we’ll be doing so shortly. The Upshot’s model has factored in available polling data all along. …
So we’ve recently done some further analysis on the value of early polling in Senate races. Here are three things we have learned from our look under the hood. CONT.
John Sides (GWU), The Monkey Cage