In the aftermath of Eric Cantor’s loss and Thad Cochran’s narrow runoff victory, you might be tempted to conclude that political polling is losing its utility.
It isn’t.
The science of polling is sound, but if you ask the wrong group of people your poll questions, you can get the wrong answers. Think of it this way: An arrow shot by an expert marksman has some chance of hitting the target depending on the wind, the distance and any number of other things, but if the marksman aims at the wrong target, those other things have nothing to do with why the arrow misses. CONT.
Lynn Vavreck (UCLA), New York Times