… I have written about anti-incumbent warnings before, but I hope to try to nip the anti-incumbent narrative in the bud this cycle — right now, in fact, before it spreads. I admit: I’m not optimistic.
First, the obvious caveat: I’ve seen plenty of odd political developments over the past 34 years I have been in Washington, D.C., so I try not to rule out any development, no matter how unusual.
But I have never witnessed an anti-incumbent election — where incumbency was enough in itself to cause large numbers of members of Congress from both parties to lose general elections. And I’m skeptical that we are about to have one, especially given the current polarized and ideological political environment. The paucity of competitive House districts only adds to the unlikelihood of an “anti-incumbent” election. CONT.
Stu Rothenberg, Roll Call