… In politics and polling, as in real estate, underwater or “upside down” approval ratings are not a good thing for an elected official. Moreover, in the case of a president heading into a midterm election, with the midterm often said to be a referendum on the incumbent president, this is a bad thing for the president’s party. Every point decline creates just a bit more headwind against Democratic candidates facing difficult races across the country. …
While that is somewhat self-evident—a lot of people talk about the Democratic challenge in holding onto their Senate majority—it seems that this problem is often understated. Persuading people who disapprove of a sitting president to still vote for a Senate candidate of that president’s party is a real challenge in a midterm election. CONT.
Charlie Cook