Few people expected Eric Cantor to lose his primary in Virginia on Tuesday night. The House majority leader was up 13 points in the polls, though there were few in the race, and he had cash, incumbency and the Republican establishment on his side. He’d won his last general election, in 2012, with 58 percent of the vote. But one challenge of election analysis is that primaries and general elections are sometimes more different than alike, and primaries are more likely to be catastrophes. CONT.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight