The fault is not in their models

I was a modeler before it was cool.

Our firm brought modeling to Democratic poll data in the early 1980s, created the first micro-targeting models in the middle and late 1980s, developed the first state-level Senate forecasting model for use in resource allocation in the 1990s and built state-level presidential models and used them with Monte Carlo simulations in the early 2000s. …

Nonetheless, models are, by definition, simplifications of reality. …

Precisely because they focus on uncovering average historical patterns, there are some factors forecasting models cannot and do not consider. Among them: CONT.

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill

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