A popular theory about elections today goes like this: Democrats can’t win midterm elections because Democrats don’t vote in midterm elections. Certainly Barack Obama seems to buy this theory. But how much is lower turnout a factor in the challenges facing Democrats? Maybe less than you think.
A significant challenge in judging the validity of the “Democrats don’t vote in midterms” theory is finding good data. …
What if we had a survey asking people how they planned to vote in their House race, and we knew from the voter file whether they had voted in 2010 and 2012? … Thanks to [Clarity Campaign Labs’ Tom] Bonier and David Margolis of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, I have the precise data. CONT.
John Sides (GWU), The Monkey Cage